Trent Aegir Predictions 2022
The 2023 predictions can be found here – https://crowle.org/?p=5059
More about the Trent Aegir can be found on this page
TAKE CARE
The River Trent has steep banks – ensure that you take care of your personal safety and donot take risks trying to get a good view.
The Trent Aegir, also known as the
The Aegir occurs when a high spring tide meets the downstream flow of the river forcing it back and causing a wave to flow upstream. Typically it is possible to see the bore from Derrythorpe to as far up the river as Gainsborough. Beyond
The best places to see the Aegir are at Gainsborough, Morton, East Stockwith, West Stockwith, and Owston Ferry.
The appearance of a bore can be affected by various other factors that may enhance or detract from the size of the bore;
- excessive flood water flowing down the river will reduce the size of the bore
- too little water flowing down the river will also reduce the size of the Aegir
- depending on the wind direction winds may enhance or detract from the size of the Aegir
- lighting may also affect how the Aegir is perceived – in my experience, it looks best when the sun is behind the river
- depending on the weather conditions the Aegir can be up to 30 minutes earlier than predicted.
To help me improve my predictions I should be grateful if you could email me (angus@townley.com) with details of actual times and appearances of the Aegir. Don’t forget to say where you were. Many thanks.
Also please feel free to share photos and reports of the aegir below.
BEAR in mind that these are predictions and natural phenomena do not work to an exact timetable and for the reasons listed above the Aegir can arrive up to 30 minutes earlier than predicted. Be early to increase your chances of seeing it.
| Owston Ferry | Stockwith | Gainsborough | High Tide Keadby | Prospect | ||
| Jan 2022 | ||||||
| 03 | Mon | 05:15 | 06:00 | 06:20 | 4.59 | * |
| 03 | Mon | 17:32 | 18:17 | 18:37 | 4.70 | ** |
| 04 | Tue | 06:08 | 06:53 | 07:13 | 4.67 | * |
| 04 | Tue | 18:17 | 19:02 | 19:22 | 4.82 | ** |
| 05 | Wed | 07:00 | 07:45 | 08:05 | 4.35 | |
| 05 | Wed | 19:03 | 19:48 | 20:08 | 4.81 | ** |
| 06 | Thu | 19:48 | 20:33 | 20:53 | 4.64 | * |
| Feb 2022 | ||||||
| 01 | Tue | 17:24 | 18:09 | 18:29 | 4.53 | * |
| 02 | Wed | 18:07 | 18:52 | 19:12 | 4.77 | ** |
| 03 | Thu | 18:50 | 19:35 | 19:55 | 4.87 | ** |
| 04 | Fri | 19:32 | 20:17 | 20:37 | 4.78 | ** |
| 05 | Sat | 20:11 | 20:56 | 21:16 | 4.52 | * |
| Mar 2022 | ||||||
| 03 | Thu | 17:52 | 18:37 | 18:57 | 4.70 | ** |
| 04 | Fri | 18:30 | 19:15 | 19:35 | 4.80 | ** |
| 05 | Sat | 19:08 | 19:53 | 20:13 | 4.73 | ** |
| 19 | Sat | 18:03 | 18:48 | 19:08 | 4.51 | * |
| 20 | Sun | 18:38 | 19:23 | 19:43 | 4.67 | * |
| 21 | Mon | 19:15 | 20:00 | 20:20 | 4.69 | * |
| Apr 2022 | ||||||
| 01 | Fri | 18:29 | 19:14 | 19:34 | 4.59 | * |
| 02 | Sat | 19:05 | 19:50 | 20:10 | 4.64 | * |
| 03 | Sun | 19:41 | 20:26 | 20:46 | 4.53 | * |
| 18 | Mon | 19:16 | 20:01 | 20:21 | 4.80 | ** |
| 19 | Tue | 19:58 | 20:43 | 21:03 | 4.74 | ** |
| May 2022 | ||||||
| 16 | Mon | 18:14 | 18:59 | 19:19 | 4.66 | * |
| 17 | Tue | 06:42 | 07:27 | 07:47 | 4.52 | * |
| 17 | Tue | 18:59 | 19:44 | 20:04 | 4.75 | ** |
| 18 | Wed | 07:21 | 08:06 | 08:26 | 4.56 | * |
| 18 | Wed | 19:47 | 20:32 | 20:52 | 4.66 | * |
| Jun 2022 | ||||||
| 15 | Wed | 18:52 | 19:37 | 19:57 | 4.52 | * |
| 16 | Thu | 07:08 | 07:53 | 08:13 | 4.52 | * |
| 17 | Fri | 07:55 | 08:40 | 09:00 | 4.50 | * |
| Jul 2022 | ||||||
| 15 | Fri | 07:00 | 07:45 | 08:05 | 4.54 | * |
| 16 | Sat | 07:47 | 08:32 | 08:52 | 4.66 | * |
| 17 | Sun | 08:34 | 09:19 | 09:39 | 4.63 | * |
| Aug 2022 | ||||||
| 13 | Sat | 06:49 | 07:34 | 07:54 | 4.69 | * |
| 13 | Sat | 19:37 | 20:22 | 20:42 | 4.52 | * |
| 14 | Sun | 07:31 | 08:16 | 08:36 | 4.88 | ** |
| 15 | Mon | 08:15 | 09:00 | 09:20 | 4.88 | ** |
| 16 | Tue | 08:57 | 09:42 | 10:02 | 4.68 | * |
| Sep 2022 | ||||||
| 11 | Sun | 06:29 | 07:14 | 07:34 | 4.74 | ** |
| 12 | Mon | 07:08 | 07:53 | 08:13 | 4.89 | ** |
| 13 | Tue | 07:48 | 08:33 | 08:53 | 4.84 | ** |
| 14 | Wed | 08:26 | 09:11 | 09:31 | 4.60 | * |
| Oct 2022 | ||||||
| 10 | Mon | 06:05 | 06:50 | 07:10 | 4.63 | * |
| 11 | Tue | 06:43 | 07:28 | 07:48 | 4.70 | ** |
| 12 | Wed | 07:20 | 08:05 | 08:25 | 4.60 | * |
| 27 | Thu | 06:53 | 07:38 | 07:58 | 4.55 | * |
| 28 | Fri | 07:32 | 08:17 | 08:37 | 4.52 | * |
| Nov 2022 | ||||||
| 25 | Fri | 05:34 | 06:19 | 06:39 | 4.56 | * |
| 26 | Sat | 06:20 | 07:05 | 07:25 | 4.52 | * |
| Dec 2022 | ||||||
| 24 | Sat | 05:26 | 06:11 | 06:31 | 4.53 | * |
| 24 | Sat | 17:45 | 18:30 | 18:50 | 4.62 | * |
| 25 | Sun | 07:10 | 07:55 | 08:15 | 4.51 | * |
| 25 | Sun | 18:28 | 19:13 | 19:33 | 4.73 | ** |
| 26 | Mon | 07:10 | 07:55 | 08:15 | 4.51 | * |
| 26 | Mon | 19:15 | 20:00 | 20:20 | 4.71 | ** |
| 27 | Tue | 20:04 | 20:49 | 21:09 | 4.54 | * |
Hi Angus, Hope all is well with you. I have just been reading an article about the Boston floods which said we are approaching the “low point of an eighteen year lunar cycle” and that when it next peaks it could add 30cm to high tides. I wonder if that has anything to do with your reduced Aegirs? I look forward to 2023 predictions!
Hi Jenifer,
I have updated the 2023 predictions and these can be found here – https://crowle.org/?p=5059
Many thanks for your interest.
Hi Jennifer,
Thanks for that reminder. Yes, I have read about the lunar cycle – there is mention of its effect on the Severn Bore in Fred Rowbotham’s book. I’ve not got my copy to hand at the moment. I’ll look to see what the impact is likely to be but I suspect that is like;ly to be the issue.
2023 Predictions now published – https://crowle.org/?p=5059
Thanks for your interest.
Hi Angus. Thank you for publishing the 2023 Aegir forecast. The times suggest that typically they arrive at Owston, 1hr before HW Hull, at Stockwith 15 mins before and at Gainsborough 5 min after, and that it disappears upstream of the Gainsborough road bridge. Whereabouts does the Aegir form into a reasonable wave please? Can it also be observed downstream at Keadby or at Flixborough, for example?
Hi John,
Thanks for the question. Most reports state that it starts forming around Derrythorpe and runs to upstream of Gainsborough Bridge. I have tried to see it at Keadby but all I could discern was a change in the direction of the river flow – that’s not to say that it can never be seen lower down the river but I guess the conditions need to be right.
I normally try to follow it from the M180 bridge to Gainsborough – it’s interesting to see how it changes throughout its run.
Give or take the Aegir is visible about 2 hours before high tide – it just so happens that High tide at Gainsborough is about 2 hours after high tide at Hull. I have two forecasts – one using high tide at Keadby and one using High Tide at the Humber Bridge. I then use offsets for Owston and Stockwith.
Keep an eye out next weekend and please share your findings. Driest summer in decades could prove fruitful for the Aegir! Low water and maximum siltation. It’s got to work again at some point in time and space 😂
Here’s hoping for a long drive up from Bristol 🤞
And it did, wakey wakey! Comon folk the Aegir is back, blink and you’ll miss it……
Hi, thanks for the chart its handy to have and look forward to the 2022 update. I currently live next to the river and keep an eye on it but havent seen an aegir for years sadly.
To let you know I have seen the Aegir a few times in life but usually by accident or when its not planned. As a kid my friends and I used to play on the river bank along Gainsborough whittons gardens and searched for all the obscure stepways leading down to the water one or two which have survived to this day. At low tide when its real low in the summer droughts we used to get out onto the river bed and dig things up like world war one bayonets and even live packs of bullets and coins. One time we where on the gravel section at whittons gardens in Gainsborough in the early 90’s having a good dig around when we heard a waterfall sound the tide was really out that day it was middle of summer with just a trickle of river left dont think ive seen it that low since. We all turned around that day when we heard the noise to see a Tsunami coming at us up the river and had literally 10 seconds to get up onto the bank to safety. My mate left his coat down hanging on a post sticking out of the silt and he jumped back down to get it narrowly missing being washed away by a 6ft aegir wave. Will never forget that day.
Also whats with the covid warnings that have appeared on this page please get rid of them there is enough of that going on in the world very sad to peddle it here. Stop getting tested and it will all be over.
Driest summer in decades could prove fruitful for next weekends tides. Please post any findings, I’ll come up from Bristol for it!
Hello,
Thank you for the reading above, I am moving into the town January of 2022, do you have, or are you going to post a similar timetable for the year please.
Is it probable that an ocean of dates and times are gleanable from the countries published tide tables, using the heights of tides as per 2021??
With thanks and seasons greetings.
Chris sayers
Hi Chris – I have had the tide tables for a month now and not got around to sort out the predictions yet. I’ll try and do them this week. Thanks for your interest. Angus
Hi Chris – I have updated the predictions for 2022. – https://crowle.org/?p=4922
Hi Simon, sorry for the late reply as I hadn’t visited this site for a while. I haven’t seen any Aegirs here for 2 years, however rumour has it that there was one on the 5th November but I missed it. The wave is an unbroken pulse. I’ve got some videos if you are on messenger or whatsapp.
We visited last night (28/04/21) and camped up at East Butterwick for our first look. The river level was low and the tide still ebbing, but a brisk northerly was blowing whitecaps up river. Without any discernable wave front at all, the tide started to rise. After 20 minutes of uncertainty we concluded that the Aegir had passed. So that was that: the only 4 star Aegir of 2021 was a non-event. Was anybody further upriver to see a noticeable wave front?
Hi Angus, it as been a pleasure reading all these comments about the Aegir even though I have never seen it myself. I lived in Gainsborough a long long time ago before moving back to my home town Grimsby. Despite living there as a young boy I never did see it only on photos etc. Many years later I came to Gainsborough quite often with my job but sadly again never see it ! I have downloaded a couple of videos which I have shown to friends. I think when I was a young lad, the stories of people rowing out to meet it springs to mind ! Also of course I visualised a very large wave !! I seem to think I have seen a portrait of the Aegir somewhere which again made it even more impressive !
It’s been a pleasure reading all this info thank you Angus.
Brian (now retired)
Hi Angus,
Just to update you on the appearance of the aegir this evening at Gainsborough Bridge timed for 20:27.
There were roughly 12 people waiting for the aegir, which passed on time, but sadly with no appearance at all sadly.
Don’t know if it was because there was still too much water in the river, as the weather conditions seemed perfect and it was predicted to be the strongest aegir for 2021.
Thanks for the report, David. It should have been a good one as you say but nothing. You just can’t rely on nature. I am going to see if I can see anything this evening but more in hope than anticipation.
Hi we have lived next to the Trent for 3 years now . In 2019 we saw lots of agears but since then nothing I have had sat out on my bench in the freezing cold for 2 years in hope but nothing. Does anyone no why this is , have they opened gates somewhere? There has got to be an explanation, we live Wildsworth. The river is low and river is flowing to the estuary and then it stops still like a pond it’s quite eary then normally we have the woosh and it comes now the river just slowly fills and changes direction. Any information would be great
I agree Justine. We had some excellent Aegirs in 2019 but last year there just seemed to be nothing. I would love an explanation too. I have a book about the Severn Bore which explains what conditions will support a bore and what will hinder the formation of a bore. It’s mainly down to the amount of flood water in the river – not too much and not too little. Wind direction as that will drive the tide into the estuary or not. I was hoping it would be possible to identify some of these elements for the Trent but there just seem to be too many variables! There was some suggestion that the flood works at Alkborough Flats would impact the Aegir but that was done a few years ago now and I’m not aware they have changed anything there in the last two years.
Hello Angus! This is fascinating. I remember watching the Welland aegir when I was a girl and it was captivating, even though I think it was much smaller than the Trent aegir. Do you know whether there still one there? Pretty sure I watched it near the Ship Inn at Surfleet Seas End where the Welland splits with the Glen and Vernatt’s Drain. I’ve tried emailing the pub and the Yacht Club and Fosdyke but no-one seems to know anything.
Hi Helen,
It’s surprising how many rivers have a bore of one sort or another. I’d not heard of the Welland Aegir. Unfortunately, the Trent Aegir has not been very impressive in the last two years – I always live in hope rather than expectation that it will return soon.
Hi Angus
I am getting a very high response to the posts I have put out in Gainsborough for the 3* and 4* Aegir’s coming on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday evening next week, probably due to them coming just after Groups of Six are able to meet outside. I have a facebook group called “Aegir Ahoy” that can have any pictures or video’s posted up to, some members on it have surfed the Severn Bore.
I hope it’s a good one. 2020 was rather disappointing. I will probably try and get to see both Tuesday & Wednesday evening. I’m originally from Gloucestershire and remember watching the Severn Bore on a number of occasions with my parents – a very different experience to the Aegir.
My Handfasted Partner & our children saw their first own last Autumn (only about a 1m wavefront) but are now so keen we are going to view each night this week. Some with friends!!
David, If you can record the time you see it and where as well as how good it looks that would be helpful. I spent much of spring 2019 watching tides around the best tide to see how it changed. I hope you get to see a good one. The weather looks good and I don’t think there is too much flood water in the river.
Hi , just been directed to this page, does anyone have the prediction for Trent Aiger for 2021 ? i’d like to put them on my villages community page (Dunham on Trent)
Hii Nina – I am just about to publish the predictions for 2021.
Thanks. Will forward them on in Gainsborough.
In May 2019 I moved into a flat overlooking the Trent on Morton Bend. I saw some amazing Aegirs that year. I was looking forward to seeing some more in 2020 but have seen only one a few inches in height and the rest of the time despite perfect conditions the river has just gently changed direction. I wonder what has gone wrong?
Hi David,
Thanks for the comments. Yes, 2019 was a great year, particularly in the spring. It does seem to be elusive for unclear reasons.
Hi David. When you say you saw good waves at Morton do you mean Aegirs which broke, with whitewater, like a beach wave? Or was it an unbroken pulse, the more typical Aegir condition? I ask because a pal and myself have surfed the Aegir twice but we never tried Morton.
Hi Simon, sorry for the late reply as I hadn’t visited this site for a while. I haven’t seen any Aegirs here for 2 years, however rumour has it that there was one on the 5th November but I missed it. The wave is an unbroken pulse. I’ve got some videos if you are on messenger or whatsapp.
In May 2019 I moved into a flat overlooking the Trent on Morton Bend. I saw some amazing Aegirs that year. I was looking forward to seeing some more in 2020 but have seen only one a few inches in height and the rest of the time despite perfect conditions the river has just gently changed direction. I wonder what has gone wrong?
Are the 2021times listed anywhere
I have now published the predictions for 2021.
Anyone catch it in October?? We always try but haven’t seen anything this year. Will try again this month!
Also when it comes does it bring the tide in? Or can the tide be on its way in and there still be an aegir?
Thanks
Thankyou for all this great info, especially you Angus.
Did you view the Aiger at a number of spots in Sept or did you just see one spot that was a “damp squid”?
Also looks like the morning tide have much more potential in terms of tide size.
Sadly it looks like river levels are the same as Sept.
Toying whether to come up from Bristol to experience it !! so any info would be of great help.
Hi Ben,
I try and watch the Aegir in as many points as possible when I am able to get out and watch an Aegir. In September I started at the M180 bridge only to see the water change direction and stopped at a couple of other locations before watching at Owston and deciding it was not worth following any further up river. When there is a good Aegir it is interesting to see how the Aegir changes over its course. To my mind, it tends to look at its best when it is bowling along the straight just south of Gunthorpe. I know many people like to catch it at either West Stockwith or Morton when it goes round some quite tight bends. As I have said in other posts I have had most luck when I have gone to see the Argir in the Spring -the vegetation has died back so it is easier to access the river bank and light can be good.
The high tide for the Trent was 2 days ago is this not the date of the Aegir? I am going to see it today but the info does not fall in line with the high tide? Is there a lag between high tide and the Aegir? I suppose I am asking how are you working it out? The Aegir is a great spectacle and usually go to Littleborough or Gainsborough
Thanks
Jez
Hi Jez.
The highest tide on the Trent was this morning’s. 5.12m at Keadby. The highest tides are always one or two days after the New Moon or Full moon. Full moon was on the 17th. I use Tide tables from the UK Hydrographic Office (https://www.ukho.gov.uk). This year’s predictions are based on the approach used by the Environment Agency when they still published a prediction. These are based on the tide at Keadby. I also have a forecast based on a rule of thumb that the Aegir reaches Gainsborough at the time of High Tide at Humber Bridge. The two predictions are normally within a few minutes of each other. I also have time offsets for the different times at different locations.
Today’s Aegir was a complete damp squib with no discernable aegir just a change in the direction of river flow. Quite a disappointment.
In my experience the Aegir has been been more reliable in the spring months.
The problem is that as a natural phenomenon it can be affected by other weather conditions, wind direction and flood water in the Trent. I have a book about the Severn Bore and it has a full chapter discussing the impact of winds from different directions and flood flow.
Hi Angus. Thanks for keeping us informed about the Aegir predictions. You are doing a great job! Yes, this morning’s was very disappointing- there were about 10 of us ready and waiting at West Stockwith but no show! We decided it was cancelled due to it being 2020! Better luck next time!
Hi Angus, I read that the time of high tide at Albert Dock, Hull coincides with the time of the tide turning or running in or flood, at West Stockwith. Not sure about Humber Bridge though.
That would make the aegir passing West Stockwith at 07:45am, coinciding with high tide at Albert Dock. You have that time roughly for Gainsborough.
This helps with predicting the time of the aegir at West Stockwith.
The aegir is approx 20 mins later at Gainsborough.
Owston Ferry times are 25 mins earlier than West Stockwith.
I am planning on going to see the aegir, either this Sunday morning or Monday at probably West Stockwith.
Hi-My spreadsheet for calculating the times uses both tide tables and they coincide within several minutes. I found last year the Aegirs in the spring were almost always on my prediction but that in the autumn they were late by 20 minutes or so – obviously, weather and flood water can affect this and have not even tried to work out how to account for that!
Sunday 20th September. The prediction was for a good aegir but it was rather disappointing as there was no discernable aegir just a change in the direction of river flow.
Planning to try & view the Aegir this Saturday 20.28 at West Stockwith. Is it still likely to be visable in the fading light & is there a best position for viewing. Thanks
Hi Paul,
Apologies – I only saw your comment this morning. I guess it was getting a little late at West Stockwith. This mornings aegir was a damp squib with no discernable aegir, despite a good prediction. Just can’t rely on nature!
Hi. We are really interested in trying to see the Aegir. We were planning to travel to West Stockwith this Saturday 19th for the 20.28 wave. In your opinion is this a good vantage point & also at that time in the evening are we still likely to see something?
Many thanks.
Sue
Apologies – I only saw your comment this morning. I guess it was getting a little late at West Stockwith. This mornings aegir was a damp squib with no discernable aegir, despite a good prediction. Just can’t rely on nature!
This is fascinating. I tried for the 3* on 22nd August but saw nothing except the water slowly seeping up over the mud and decided I had missed it. Got a lovely shot of a kingfisher though. Will try again when everything lines up (I live in Staffordshire) it’s not going anywhere after all! Thanks for posting these.
Been asked if the times are GMT or BST. I had always thought they would be GMT but said I would ask.
The times are GMT or BST as appropriate to the time or year.
I have posted these up about groups in Gainsborough. Thanks for adding them Angus.
Thank you so much for adding this! I was annoyed when the Environment Agency stopped doing it.
Thank you!
Did anyone see the 4* in early April? Only a few 3* in May until higher ones in the Autumn. When is the Autumn Timetable out?
I’ll add July to December when I have some more time!
I have shared the 2020 Trent Aegir predictions across sites in Gainsborough
Thank you! David
Hello, thank you for all of this information, which is fascinating.
We’re moored at West Stockwith Basin for the foreseeable future due to the lockdown and are enjoying the view of the river and discovering about the aegirs.
I have a photograph of tonight’s aegir, which was hardly noticeable, but I would like to share it anyway; however I can’t seem to find how to post photos here.
Is there an email address I can send send it to?
Kind regards
Polly
Hi Polly – you can just send it as an email to me on angus@townley.com Unfortunately I have not been able to get out to see any Aegirs since March.
Hi! Have you the dates for June and July? This looks like a great event but, other than this weekend (4 -6 June) I can’t find other times. Thanks
Hi,
Apologies, I have not updated it yet. I will try and sort it out later today.
I have now updated the predictions to December.
Hi there, do you know how I can find the dates for Jan 2022?
Hi Jessica. I have had the tide tables for a month now and not got around to sort out the predictions yet. I’ll try and do them this week. Thanks for your interest. Angus
Hi Jessica – I have updated the predictions for 2022. – https://crowle.org/?p=4922