Trent Aegir 2019
Predictions for 2020 are here
https://crowle.org/?p=4922
NOTE! I have updated my predictions based on Today’s Aegir and a review of my approach – Please ignore previous versions of this table. Thursday 24th January
The Trent Aegir, also known as the
The Aegir occurs when a high spring tide meets the downstream flow of the river forcing it back and causing a wave to flow upstream. Typically it is possible to see the bore from Derrythorpe to as far up the river as Gainsborough. Beyond
The best places to see the Aegir are at Gainsborough, Morton, East Stockwith, West Stockwith and Owston Ferry.
The Environment Agency used to publish predictions for the bore but no longer do. I have therefore tried to make predictions for the bore myself using tidal tables
I have used the tidal range at the Humber Bridge to determine the likelihood of a good bore – the larger the tidal range the more likely there will be a good bore on the River Trent. I have then determined timings using a time difference from the predicted high tide. The highest tides are around the spring and autumn equinoxes.
The appearance of a bore can be affected by various other factors that may enhance or detract from the size of the bore;
- excessive flood water flowing down the river will reduce the size of the bore
- too little water flowing down the river will also reduce the size of the Aegir
- depending on the wind direction winds may enhance or detract from the size of the Aegir
- lighting may also affect how the Aegir is perceived – in my experience, it looks best when the sun is behind the river
- depending on the weather conditions the Aegir can be up to 30 minutes earlier than predicted.
To help me improve my predictions I should be grateful if you could email me (angus@townley.com) with details of actual times and appearances of the Aegir. Don’t forget to say where you were. Many thanks.
Also please feel free to share photos and reports of the aegir below.
Depending on the weather conditions the Aegir can be up to 30 minutes earlier than predicted. Be early to increase your chances of seeing it.
| Day | Date | Owston Ferry | Stockwith | Gainsborough | Tidal Range at Humber Bridge | Prospect |
| Sep 2019 | ||||||
| 01 | Sun | 07:50 | 08:15 | 08:35 | 7.57 | *** |
| 01 | Sun | 20:29 | 20:54 | 21:14 | 7.85 | **** |
| 02 | Mon | 08:34 | 08:59 | 09:19 | 7.72 | *** |
| 02 | Mon | 21:11 | 21:36 | 21:56 | 7.73 | *** |
| 03 | Tue | 09:18 | 09:43 | 10:03 | 7.53 | *** |
| 03 | Tue | 21:53 | 22:18 | 22:38 | 7.26 | ** |
| 28 | Sat | 18:39 | 19:04 | 19:24 | 7.44 | ** |
| 29 | Sun | 06:44 | 07:09 | 07:29 | 7.35 | ** |
| 29 | Sun | 19:22 | 19:47 | 20:07 | 7.86 | **** |
| 30 | Mon | 07:28 | 07:53 | 08:13 | 7.74 | *** |
| 30 | Mon | 20:03 | 20:28 | 20:48 | 7.95 | **** |
| Oct 2019 | ||||||
| 01 | Tue | 08:11 | 08:36 | 08:56 | 7.82 | **** |
| 01 | Tue | 20:43 | 21:08 | 21:28 | 7.70 | *** |
| 02 | Wed | 08:54 | 09:19 | 09:39 | 7.53 | *** |
| 02 | Wed | 21:22 | 21:47 | 22:07 | 7.13 | * |
| 03 | Thu | 21:22 | 21:47 | 22:07 | 7.13 | * |
| 27 | Sun | 17:14 | 17:39 | 17:59 | 7.47 | ** |
| 28 | Mon | 05:21 | 05:46 | 06:06 | 7.32 | ** |
| 28 | Mon | 17:56 | 18:21 | 18:41 | 7.76 | **** |
| 29 | Tue | 06:06 | 06:31 | 06:51 | 7.61 | *** |
| 29 | Tue | 18:36 | 19:01 | 19:21 | 7.72 | *** |
| 30 | Wed | 06:50 | 07:15 | 07:35 | 7.57 | *** |
| 30 | Wed | 19:15 | 19:40 | 20:00 | 7.39 | ** |
| 31 | Thu | 07:33 | 07:58 | 08:18 | 7.20 | * |
| Nov 2019 | ||||||
| 25 | Mon | 16:49 | 17:14 | 17:34 | 7.02 | * |
| 26 | Tue | 17:32 | 17:57 | 18:17 | 7.22 | * |
| 27 | Wed | 05:48 | 06:13 | 06:33 | 7.08 | * |
| 27 | Wed | 18:51 | 19:16 | 19:36 | 7.17 | * |
| 28 | Thu | 06:33 | 06:58 | 07:18 | 7.00 | * |
Hi Thank you for sharing the info
i am planning to visit this year i have a relative there.
can you send us updated calendar please for 2021
Hi, the predictions for this year can be found here – https://crowle.org/?p=4922
Many thanks.
Hi. Good job ! Have you seen any riders on the Trent Aegir ?
Hi Anthony. No, I have not seen people try to ride the aegir. A surfer who contacted me suggested that the steep banks would be a problem if you had to get out.
In previous times the ferries across the river would ride the aegir with paying passengers – in at least one case this ended in the boat capsizing and people being drowned. I saw a cabin cruiser riding one of the aegirs last year and that was the first time I had seen anyone trying it. Angus
Hi Anthony, there are a few videos on YouTube showing surfers successfully surfing the aegir in recent years. I have seen a few surfers on their way to attempt to surf, when I have gone to view an aegir in the last nine or so years.
Predictions for teh first half of 2020 can be found here – https://crowle.org/?p=4922
brilliant
thank you
Will the 1* Aegirs have an effect on any flooding in the area as the level of the Trent is still very high?
Hi David,
I must admit I don’t really know. However, as they are 1* they would not necessarily be particularly noticeable and the aegirs tend to be diminished if there is a lot of floodwater coming down the Trent. The key thing to look at would be the height of the high tide itself. The aegir occurs as the tide turns in the river and the river continues to rise once it has passed.
Angus
thank you for the predictions I watch the aegir whenever I can as I live on the trent side I watched the last few today and yesterday someone is coming to surf it tomorrow morning so hope its a good one he’s surfed it before and I recorded it, and have put it on youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BKIzUX8G-w
andy
Many thanks for that. I watched this evening but I think the floodwater coming down the Trent is reducing it. Where will your friend try to surf the Aegir?
sorry for the late reply it was at east stockwith he was the one in the youtube clip which was filmed in walkerith this one is at east stockwith from my garden on the same day https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zo6eyq2AwWg
will there be any predictions for this year??
thanks
andy
Many thanks – I hope to get the predictions up this week, before the weekend. Possibly tonight if I have time after Pantomime rehearsals!
There is a northerly wind for this evening’s tide. Pity about the floodwater. Heavy rain also forecasted for early Tuesday before tide, although wind in a good direction ie NE.
This might be what a call a wet lettuce. Blink and you miss it, but who knows?
Thanks. I’ll see what impact it has.
Hi Angus, Just checked and the tide for later today has a northerly. Its just the rain that might ruin the aegir’s strength. Tuesday morning sees a NE wind, but again, heavy rain early prior to the tide.
Tuesday morning, 1 Oct., is the one I’m going to see. I expect this tide to be early, as a NE wind will prevail, which is also a good thing for the strength of the tide. Just hope there’s not too much rainwater in the river, as the weather is looking promising with the wind in a good direction.
My main concern is the floodwater in the River. I going to see what it looks like tonight and tomorrow for good measure – if the weather is not too bad!
Thank You for this information. I have posted it across sites in Gainsborough after being told there had been a good size one last week.
Eiger arrived at Morton Corner at 14:00 on 8/9/2019. I calculated from your figures to arrive at 13:45. Just a ripple. Grandkids laughing. I have seen it circa 1.2M very impressive. I will delve deeper, I need to win credibility back!
Thankyou for the information.
Bob King.
Hi Bob,
I would not have predicted an impressive Aegir then. The end of the month should see some of the best Aegirs this year. Hopefully, they will regain your credibility. But as with anything natural – it can’t be guaranteed.
Thanks Angus.
We saw it (well missed it in the morning ! ) at Gainsborough in the evening. It was fantastic ! It seemed to get smaller as it went round the bend towards the bridge, does it do that because the river is wider or something ? Or was it just because it was fairly dark and we couldn`t see it clearly…..
Interestingly there were two other groups of people who also got there late in the morning all quoting 9.35, so I`d make the fact it can be earlier one of the most prominent points.
We saw it about 8 years ago (though it was quite a bit smaller than the one on Sunday) and have also seen the Severn Bore twice (good but negatively affected by surfers and motorboats on and in front of it), plus I was once walking along the banks of the River Lune (Lancaster) and just happened to see a small wave going up it and immediately realised it must be a bore
Anyway, thanks again, anything which promotes this wonder is to be commended.
Hello.
An excellent and useful site for Trent Bore info.
I think it would be a good idea to prominently emphasise that the Bore can be early !
On the 1st Sept we got up early (for a Sunday ! ) and travelled all the way from Sheffield to see it, we got there about 25 min early to be informed it`d gone 20 minutes ago…. We then called back in the evening (having spent the day in Cleethorpes) for the 9.15PM Bore. we got there 50 min early to be on the safe side and it actually passed about 30 min early.
Do larger Bores travel faster and therefore are they more likely to be early ?
Hi, I’m sorry you missed it. On Friday it was ahead of schedule by about 30 minutes. I nearly missed it myself. The timing of the Aegir is affected by a number of factors including the weather conditions. In following the Aegir this year I am hoping to improve my predictions. The larger Aegirs earlier in the year were nearly all on time. I will emphasise the 30 minutes early as it is a bit lost in the other bullet points. The Sunday Aegir was quite good I gather- unfortunately I was not able to see it.
I saw it at 19.40 at West Butterwick on 1st September. Thanks for your effort putting the timetables together. It was visually quite impressive but the noise was incredible.
I took a video of it. The file will be too big to send but I don’t know if I could upload it?
Thanks Ian
Hi Ian,
That would be great. Are you able to upload it to onedrive Flickr or something similar? Thanks
Hi
If you send me your email I’ll link you into a onedrive folder
Thanks Ian
Hi Ian, My email address is angus@townley.com Thanks
I was just up stream of Susworth at the river bend – the aegir came through st 20:07 this evening.
Thanks for the information.
Great work with the timetables. It was the first time tonight that I witnessed the Aegir – quite spectacular and very eerie as seen from Gainsborough bridge in the darkness. It came through at around 20:50 so well within the time range predicted. Thank you for putting the effort in to predict the timings. We are definitely going back at the end of the month to see it again.
Thanks – unfortunately, I was not able to follow it tonight. I saw it this morning at Gainsborough and followed it on Friday, though not as far as Gainsborough. Glad you enjoyed it and possibly see you at the end of the month.
Thanks so much for this info – without it we’d have had no idea when to look!
Tonight’s Aegir occurred at 19:59 at Walkerith, so I’d imagine this would’ve been around 15-20 minutes earlier than the time tabled for Stockwith above.
I thought the following information may be of help to you.
A few years back now, I made a freedom of information request to the Environment Agency, after they had stopped producing the Trent Aegir timetable.
The reason why they stopped was down to cost cutting.
I received a lot of information, but sadly most of the past information regarding timetables were deleted.
The Environment Agency did send me though the following…
———-
River Trent Aegir Predictions
From the River Trent tidal predictions, when they are published:
Use KEADBY levels. Metres AOD
Use Gainsborough times, GMT
If Gainsborough time is not available, an estimate can be calculated by taking the Keadby time and adding 1h 05m +/- 5mins
Aegir time is GMT time at Gainsborough minus 2 hours
eg. 21:00 high tide = 19:00 Aegir prediction.
Prospect predictions:
Small 4.50 to 4.69 metres AOD *
Medium 4.70 to 4.89 metres AOD **
Large 4.90 to 5.09 metres AOD ***
Extra Lrge 5.10 to 5.30 metres AOD ****
5 Star 5.40 metres AOD and above. *****
———-
AOD means Above Ordinance Datum
The info re prospect predictions gives a 5 star aegir at 5 40 metres AOD and above. Not sure if that is a typo error and should have read instead 5.31 metres AOD and above.
Hope this helps! 🙂
Thanks David. I’ll build those into my model and see how they compare. I was able to dig out previous versions of the EA predictions from Archive.org they always quoted a tidal range in the 7-8m range which seemed to equate to tidal range at Humber Bridge.
Just to reiterate, Angus, that the Environment Agency used Keadby levels in metres AOD, not Humber levels or tidal ranges to predict the River Trent Aegir.
I also meant to say that the EA just told me they no longer held any information on the Aegir and that I should contact UK hydrological office. I contacted them and they basically said they could not forecast Aegirs .
Angus, the Environment Agency supplied me with as much information that they had re the Trent Aegir and how they predicted the strengths and times.
I can send you the information if you like.
There was quite a lot of data to mull over.
Yes please – Thank you. That would be interesting to see what they used. Please send it to me at angus@townley.com. The two hours before high tide is consistent with the advice I had for Owston Ferry.
Thanks for the info will try again tomorrow
Hi,
Been to the Trent at Stockwith today but no sign of Aegir
Hi Ben,
Thanks for the feedback – it’s good to know even when there was not a good Aegir.
I could not make it today but intend to go tomorrow morning. My threshold for listing a potential Aegir is quite arbitrary; a 7m tidal range at the Humber bridge. Possibly this needs to be increased. I am trying to follow most of the spring tides this year to improve my predictions. The next really big Aegirs will be at the end of September Early October.
Hello Angus. Any predictions please for 2020 ?.
Hi Rodger, Yes there will be I got my tide tables in October in order to get ahead of myself but failed. I will try and put them up this week. Angus
There wouldn’t be. The Full Moon isn’t until 22:11 tonight and the aegirs (if any) won’t occur generally until a few days following a New or Full Moon.
Looking at the heights at Keadby, the best day would be Monday, but I don’t even think it’s a 1* aegir to be honest.
This is wonderful information and many thanks for your efforts.
I also have been very interested in forecasting the aegir tides and heights for several years now, so we’ll done for your great efforts here.
I also have missed the Aegir tables. I saw an impressive one at West Stockwith several years ago, so took my wife to see the next one. It was, inevitably, almost none existent. So we went to the pub.
I am conducting some research into the Trent Navigation Company Gauging Tables and came across the following newspaper article which illustrates the dangers of the bore, even to professional boatmen:
Friday 9 September 1898, the Lincoln, Rutland & Stamford Mercury, Page 5
GAINSBOROUGH
VESSELS SUNK BY THE AEGIR
About 7.30 on Friday morning [2/9/1898] two canal boats, the property of Mr R. Teal of Stockwith, were sunk by the tide at Gainsboro’. As the Aegir was expected to be a large one preparations were made to meet it by pushing the vessels into the middle of the stream. This however was of no avail for the Aegir, which was eight or ten feet high, lifted the bows high in the air and the sterns stuck in the bottom of the river. The vessels were swamped and sank immediately. Four occupants were washed overboard, but fortunately were able to swim. One of them, a boy, with great presence of mind swam to a cob-boat, and cutting the moorings, went after the others, one of whom had succeeded in obtaining a plank, and by this means was keeping afloat. The other men were not so fortunate, and were struggling desperately to keep above water. Eventually they were all taken aboard the boat by the boy in a very exhausted condition. The two vessels are now lying in ten feet of water opposite Trentholme Brick Works.
(KGF Note: in the Trent Navigation Company Books there are two boats owned by R. Teal of Stockwith (Nos 2158 and 2162). Both came into his possession after 1898.)
7.30pm at West Stockwith today (20.04.19)
Thanks
19.47 at Gainsborough on the 20th and 08. 26 on the 21st
Thank you for you work, which I stumbled upon by accident yeaterday morning and so went to see the Aegir lasr night at Gainsborough for the first time in my life – an ambition fulfilled.
As a local man growing up with a farming family (Flixborough / Burton) I had heard a lot about it from my grand parents, particularly my Grandma who knew lots of stories and folklore.
It was everything I expected.
I will go again thanks to your tables.
Thanks again
Many thanks for your kind comments.
I saw the Aegir last Friday morning at. Gainsborough. Thanks for the prediction work you have done. What was interesting was that on ,2 previous occasions when there wasn’t a bore the river visibly changed direction about 40 mins before the high tide time but on Friday it didn’t..
I traveled from Gunthorpe Nottingham to see it again after 60 years have passed.
I saw the Aegir about 7.15 am on the 23rd March between West Butterwick and Owston Ferry completely by chance as I was jogging on the river bank. There were clear waves about a foot high but they were not breaking, it was still pretty impressive though as it was such a clear beautiful calm morning. I am also a keen surfer and I reckon the wave was big enough to catch on a longboard, on a location where the wave actually breaks, or nearly breaks. I have seen some of the video clips near the M180 and reckon it would have been catchable there.
Ian,
Thanks for your comments. I quite often get asked why don’t people surf the Aegir like they do the Severn Bore so your comments are interesting. Not being a surfer I don’t have any feel for what is a suitable wave.
The shape of the Aegir changes, not only between Aegirs, but also on its progression up river. I am intending to record all the main Aegirs this year from the M180 up to Gainsborough. You can find the videos I have taken so far this year by following the link to River Trent on the site menu – https://crowle.org/?cat=52 It would be interesting to have your views on the suitability of the different Aegirs for surfing.
I am also using the timing to improve the prediction but there are probably too many factors outside my control! It was 20 minutes early on Saturday but 5 minutes late on Sunday.
Angus
Hi
My biggest worry would be getting out of the river after. The banks look steep, muddy and slippery
Ian
I saw the Aegir/(eagre) passing Burton Stather this afternoon at 17:20 not very big.
Thanks for that Lawrence.
I was interested to find out how far down the Trent one can see the Aegir. I tried to see it at Keadby a couple of times last month but it was not possible to discern a wave – just a change in river flow direction – yet by the time it got to the M180 bridge there was a distinct wave. You can see on my video pages how the Aegir changes during its procession up the river.
Does anyone ride the bore as they do the Severn? If not why not?
Not as far as I am aware. I was wondering that myself today. Not knowing a great deal about surfing I wondered if the type/shape of the Aegir might make it difficult. It is rare for the wave to ‘break’ and quite often, like today, it was just a smooth curve.
Thank you for calculating the times, we went over today. Spectacular and accurate prediction to the minute.
Thanks for the information been missing watching since environment agency stopped listing times
Hi
I have read with interest all the comments re the Aigir and or Bore on the Trent and congratulate everyone for keeping the subject alive and kicking.
I have found reading these posts very interesting and they have awakened some good memories of time past. I was born in Keadby before the war and recall being escorted to the riverbank at tide times to see how big the Aigir was going to be. This seemed to be a popular event and one could see many families participating in this along the riverside. In those days there were indeed some quite high waves formed with an accompanying rushing sound of water. After spending a number of years as an officer in the MN I eventually found myself in charge of running river wharves in different parts of the country which included Gunness Wharf and Flixborough on the Trent. The Aigir again became a part of my life in as much that we were involved in river flood defences which included strengthening banks and lifting the height of the river banks. These all contributed to the effect of the Aigir by reducing its surge. During my working life on the river especially at Gunness we experienced a number of incidents where ships moored at Gunness were stripped of their moorings and on a couple of occasions drifted into the nearby Keadby bridge structure. These incidents were caused by a large Aigir surge and despite vessels using extra moorings to counter these expected incidents the strength of the Aigir overcame the moorings. It was in those days our responsibility together with the ships Master to calculate when such events were likely to take place by using local tide tables and tidal predictions issued from Hull Albert Dock
Thanks for the comments. It would be interesting to see how bank improvements and schemes like that at Alkborough Flats have changed the Aegir over time. How did you calculate the likely impact of the Aegir?
[…] The Environment Agency used to publish Aegir timetables, but have not done so for several years, however the Crowle Community Forum publishes predictions, click here. […]
A really interesting project, I think you have got a job for life!
Thanks
Thanks for doing this. When the Environment Agency stopped doing it they sent me a link to the Admiralty EasyTide website which was gobbledegook to me.
Cheers
Mandy
Thanks – I used tide tables and the Environment Agency predictions for 2015 to calculate time offsets from high tide at Humber Bridge. I’ve then applied them to tide times from EasyTide. I have assumed that a tidal range of less than 7m at the Humber bridge would not produce a significant bore and therefore I have not made a prediction but that may not always be the case depending on a number of factors. The more I can get feedback on what people actually observe the better I can develop the predictions.
Videos of the Aegir taken on this mornings tide can be seen here – https://crowle.org/?p=4744
Great stuff, ill keep an eye on the evening times again at morton, they were a little closer to your original predictions. Thanks for putting this on here
Shaun
Today’s videos are here – https://crowle.org/?p=4744
Hi Angus, today at morton it came through at 7.30 am not 6.29am. Wednesday 23rd 2019 if that helps you re-asses timings?
Thanks, Shaun – I followed it down on the West Bank this morning and got the timings there but obviously did not visit Morton – That is very useful. I am updating my predictions in light of this morning’s Aegir including the timings. Many thanks
Angus, just in case you are not aware, the time of High tide at Albert Dock, Hull coincides with the time of the tide turning or running in or flood, at West Stockwith. This helps with predicting the time of the aegir at West Stockwith.
The aegir is approx 20 mins later at Gainsborough.
Owston Ferry times are 25 mins earlier than West Stockwith.
Thanks. I have been using offsets from High Tide at Humber Bridge. The EA appeared to use that high tide to be the time for the arrival at Gainsborough. I’ve also been told that at Owston Ferry the Aegir is about 2 hours ahead of the predicted high tide at the same place.
It was around 6.45 am this morning, tuesday 22nd at the large bend at morton if that helps? was big
Thanks so much for working this out. We have really missed the Environment Agency packing it in! Well done.
My guess is that someone who was interested in this retired.
Thanks – very helpful. I have seen a video of a narrowboat like mine moored on Gainsborough pontoon. I don’t want to try that myself …
Thank you, very interesting, I will be boating along here this year!
Is there an obvious reason why there are none predicted in June, July or September ??
Theoretically there can be an Aegir on every tide but this can vary from a ripple to a wave of 1-2m. The larger Aegirs will occur when the tidal range in the Humber is at its greatest – these occur around the New and Full moons. The tidal range is at its greatest around the equinoxes when the spring tides are expected. In my calculations I have used a tidal range of 7m at the Humber Bridge as the cut off and assumed that below this there will not be an Aegir worth watching but you never know as weather conditions and water in the river will affect the predictions.
Thank you very much for this Angus .