Trent Aegir Predictions 2023
More about the Trent Aegir can be found on this page
TAKE CARE
The River Trent has steep banks – ensure that you take care of your personal safety and donot take risks trying to get a good view.
The Trent Aegir, also known as the Eagre, is a tidal bore on the River Trent. At certain times of the year, it is possible to see a bore of up to five feet high.
The Aegir occurs when a high spring tide meets the downstream flow of the river forcing it back and causing a wave to flow upstream. Typically it is possible to see the bore from Derrythorpe to as far up the river as Gainsborough. Beyond Gainsborough the bore is reduced to a ripple.
The best places to see the Aegir are at Gainsborough, Morton, East Stockwith, West Stockwith, and Owston Ferry.
The appearance of a bore can be affected by various other factors that may enhance or detract from the size of the bore;
- excessive flood water flowing down the river will reduce the size of the bore
- too little water flowing down the river will also reduce the size of the Aegir
- depending on the wind direction winds may enhance or detract from the size of the Aegir
- lighting may also affect how the Aegir is perceived – in my experience, it looks best when the sun is behind the river
- depending on the weather conditions the Aegir can be up to 30 minutes earlier than predicted.
To help me improve my predictions I should be grateful if you could email me (angus@townley.com) with details of actual times and appearances of the Aegir. Don’t forget to say where you were. Many thanks.
Also please feel free to share photos and reports of the aegir below.
BEAR in mind that these are predictions and natural phenomena do not work to an exact timetable and for the reasons listed above the Aegir can arrive up to 30 minutes earlier than predicted. Be early to increase your chances of seeing it.
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Yes – I know from experience! Looking at images of the Severn Bore yesterday -it does not look to have been particularly impressive.
Thanks again Angus for doing these. Not yet sure if anyone saw the 4* earlier tonight but I have put links up to the 2023 Predictions in Gainsborough.
23/3/23 No show of aiger tonight was with a man who had come from skegness who wanted to see his first aiger we waited near E ferry till
6.30ish but nothing,got to wait while September now
John
Did you see the flow change direction? Unfortunately I was not able to get out last night.
Yes we saw the flow change direction
Angus
John
Unfortunately, that’s the nature of the beast!
Tides can be very late and very early…. Often +\- 10-20mins even occasionally 30-40mins!!!! But a tide will always change and be visible in the turning direction of the flow.
Sounds like they missed it, looks like the river was too full anyway for anything spectacular!
Yes – I know from experience! Looking at images of the Severn Bore yesterday -it does not look to have been particularly impressive.
Anyone one have any experience of what would be classified as “too much water in the river”? Prolonged high levels I guess would also scour/deepen the river channels….
I was thinking maybe around 1m at Gainsborough? It’s 2.4m at the moment which IMO would be way too much. Being half the tidal height it would swamp any form of a Aegir.
Another impact on tide height is atmospheric pressure known as the “Inverse Barometer Effect”. https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2016/04/19/inverse-barometer-effect
Indeed, air pressures can have a significant effect on tides. A low offshore the estuary can really boost the power of a tide. I was at the Arnside last month, one day the tide was powerful with a low out to sea, the next day same size tide with a high out to sea and the bore was half the size and power. I heard the high and strong northerlies made the Severn over 30mins late at its point of origin which is unheard of! Hoping to come up to the Trent this month, but only if we get the right conditions.
Interesting article about ‘Super Tides’ from the Met Office published in 2014.
It would suggest that there is a 4.5-year cycle – so 2019 would have been the next year for ‘Super Tides’ after 2015 and may explain why the last 2 years were not good for Aegirs. https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/09/24/super-tides-this-autumn/
Very happy to see these up again for this year, thanks for doing it. Can you possibly clarify the dates/times at the beginning of August and September, as it looks like the evening times are shown before the morning ones, so I’m not sure if it means the next morning, or the night before? Hoping to trek over from Staffordshire at some point!
Thanks for spotting that – the table in excel was doing its own sort! I’ve now made it show correctly.